National Banking Era. He is a member of the Economic History Association, the Economic History Society, and the Cliometrics Society. Mary Tone Rodgers is an Adjunct Instructor of Finance and Economics at the State University of New York. She enjoyed a 30-year career at Merrill Lynch before moving to academia where she received the 2022 Chancellor's Award for Excellence in Teaching.
Moen and Rodgers applied the “Page 99 Test” to their new book, Before the Fed: J.P. Morgan, America's Lender of Last Resort, and reported the following:
On page 99 we find President Grover Cleveland stymied in two attempts to resolve a rapidly developing financial crisis in the winter of 1895: he must replenish the US gold reserve. The terms on which he can borrow money are too rigid to produce what he needs: a huge infusion of gold to support payments of US debts in gold. Without an immediate gold inflow, the US would resort to paying the interest on its debt in silver, anathema to essential European investors who were securely on the gold standard. Page 99 sets the stage for J. P. Morgan’s entrance to the drama. Up to this moment in the book, Morgan has already stepped in to stop bank runs, calm panicky markets, and supply emergency loans when others failed. But the stakes on page 99 are higher than anything he has ever confronted, putting him at the edge of the riskiest rescue operation of his career. What unfolds over the next twenty pages is not just the largest last-resort loan in American history up to that point, but a rescue that reshapes the financial role Morgan will play until the Federal Reserve forms to take on the job.Learn more about Before the Fed at the Cambridge University Press website.
The Page 99 Test works because on that page we discuss a core theme of our book: the US had a paucity of official tools at its disposal to address financial crises and therefore relied on the voluntary actions of bankers like Morgan to create lifelines to preserve financial stability. To motivate other bankers to join him in collective action Morgan has to try to make last resort loans profitable to them. On page 99 we do what is distinctive among financial histories: we show how risk, return and prices of last resort loans were estimated by Morgan’s banking network.
However, page 99 does not touch on many of the other related themes we develop in the book. It does not touch on how he adapts his syndication device for arranging routine loans to the railroads to arranging loans to quell crises; how his approach evolves from saving his father’s firm, to saving customers, to eventually saving the US financial system; or how he incurs some massive losses on some last resort loans. And it doesn’t spell out the similarities between how Morgan crafted last resort loans and how the Federal Reserve does them today.
--Marshal Zeringue





















