Visiting Associate Professor at Stanford University (2016-17), Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (2010-11), and Research Fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (2007-08). He was named an Andrew Carnegie Fellow in 2016 by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
His research and teaching focus on international security issues with an emphasis on nuclear weapons, diplomacy and bargaining, and alliance politics. He is the author of three books, including Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Nuclear Deterrence (2024) and Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy (2017, with Todd S. Sechser). His articles are published in journals such as American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, International Organization, International Security, and International Studies Quarterly.
Fuhrmann applied the “Page 99 Test” to Influence without Arms and reported the following:
Page 99 offers a technical primer on how to make nuclear weapons. It describes different kind of bomb designs, including the Fat Man implosion-type bomb that the United States dropped on Nagasaki in August 1945. The page goes to discuss other technological challenges in making more sophisticated weapons. This includes miniaturizing warheads so that they can be mated to a long-range missile. The goal of this discussion is to generate a timeline – how long would it take for a country with a large nuclear energy program, such as Japan, to build a nuclear weapon following a political decision?Visit Matthew Fuhrmann's website.
Influence Without Arms offers a mixed bag for the Page 99 test. This page gives readers a good sense of a key subject in the book: the technology needed to make a nuclear weapon. But it doesn’t get at the core questions examined in the book, nor does it lay out any of the main arguments or evidence. Page 99 might give one the sense that this book is primarily technical in nature, perhaps like a “how to” manual for making a bomb. But it is primarily about international politics.
The book is about a group of countries that have been overlooked by scholars and policymakers: those that have the technology needed to make a nuclear bomb but choose to stay nonnuclear. These countries, including Brazil, Japan, and (for now) Iran, have what is known as “nuclear latency.” Influence Without Arms develops the concept of latent nuclear deterrence – the use of a non-weaponized nuclear program to gain greater international influence. It provides new quantitative and qualitative evidence that latent nuclear deterrence can work. Being almost-nuclear leads to a reduction in international crises, better foreign policy relations with adversaries, a lower risk of their adversaries arming with nuclear weapons, and stronger defense commitments for U.S. allies. However, latent nuclear deterrence can be a risky strategy. Countries attempting it can also invite military conflict and arms races, especially if others believe that the latent power is racing to build a bomb.
The book has implications for big policy questions facing leaders in Washington and around the globe. What are the prospects for future nuclear proliferation? Will countries like Iran and South Korea seek nuclear weapons in the coming months and years? Would the world be safer and more peaceful without nuclear weapons? What would peace and stability look like in a world with many latent nuclear powers but no assembled weapons? The book provides answers, teaching us how nuclear latency can enrich our understanding of international politics.
The Page 99 Test: Atomic Assistance.
--Marshal Zeringue
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