Ryan D. Griffiths's "The Disunited States"

Ryan D. Griffiths is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. His research focuses on the dynamics of secession and the study of sovereignty, state systems, and international orders. He teaches on topics related to nationalism, international relations, and international relations theory.

Griffiths applied the “Page 99 Test” to his new book, The Disunited States: Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won't Work, and shared the following:

I took the Page 99 Test and got lucky. Page 99 happens to be the first page of Chapter 6: The Perils of National Divorce. The chapter begins with this paragraph:

The fundamental problem with a Red State / Blue State divorce is the interspersed population. Breaking up is hard to do at the best of times. Although the track record is bad, secession works best when the nation looking to secede is regionally concentrated, ideally delimited by a clear border, and possessing a territorial unit that is defined in some unique way. Only then does secession have a chance of working peacefully. None of these conditions hold in the fever dream of a nice and tidy and peaceful division into Redland and Blueland. Attempting secession when two populations are interspersed is both foolhardy and dangerous.

In chapter 6, I draw on research in political science to consider the problems that would follow from a serious attempt to divide American into two countries: Redland and Blueland. I identify six perils: (1) Polarization and ideological hardening; (2) Ideological Unmixing and cleansing; (3) The security dilemma and stranded populations; (4) Land grabs and vital assets; (5) Divided groups; and (6) Refugee crises. These are interlinked, cascading problems that would arise as the country tried to unmix and disassemble. They are perils that commonly occur in other settings, and they would undoubtedly happen here. Collectively, they explain why the project would collapse into violence and chaos.

The point of the book is to say that while polarization in America is a problem, secession is not the solution. Page 99 provides a useful summary of the argument.

Visit Ryan D. Griffiths's website.

--Marshal Zeringue